Gaeten-Dugas
0xa1e9ab4d47ce17961795c6250a99e07b7c9d8b44
- Realised P&L
- $34.5k
- Volume
- $938.1k
- Markets traded
- 96
- Open portfolio
- $1.5k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.7%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded96
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration91.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026? · Yes | 0.151 | 0.811 | $1.3k | +$1.1k |
| Will Swim – BTS be the top song for 2026? · No | 0.577 | 0.989 | $118.34 | +$49.21 |
| Will Graham Platner drop out by July 31? · No | 0.029 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$123.33 |
| Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? · No | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.36 |
| Will Drake be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025? · Yes | 0.614 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.3k |
| Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? · No | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$702.56 |
| Will 'The Life of a Showgirl (feat. Sabrina Carpenter)' be the least streamed song on The Life of a Showgirl on Oct 10th? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$108.92 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.9kat 0.437Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination?
- +$4.5kat 0.135Will Marco Rubio win the 2024 Republican VP nomination?
- +$3.4kat 0.451Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$2.9kat 0.674If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
- +$2.8kat 0.675Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-14 15:26 | Will Swim – BTS be the top song for 2026? | SELL | 0.9355008781 | $506.04 |
| 08-14 15:12 | Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos be the top Spotify album for 2026? | SELL | 0.673345414 | $120.76 |
| 08-14 15:11 | Will Justin Bieber's monthly listeners figure hit 140m by August 31? | SELL | 0.86 | $2.86 |
| 08-14 15:11 | Will Justin Bieber's monthly listeners figure hit 150m by August 31? | SELL | 0.9770808096 | $190.68 |
| 08-14 15:10 | Will Justin Bieber's monthly listeners figure hit 140m by August 31? | SELL | 0.9871113015 | $178.62 |
| 08-14 15:08 | Will "Arirang - BTS" be the top album for 2026? | SELL | 0.8623474913 | $441.19 |
| 08-05 23:31 | Will Swim – BTS be the top song for 2026? | SELL | 0.9104545455 | $765.45 |
| 07-22 17:52 | Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026? | BUY | 0.3410879121 | $155.20 |
| 07-22 17:51 | Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026? | SELL | 0.332 | $0.05 |
| 07-22 17:51 | Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026? | SELL | 0.3331515152 | $43.98 |
| 07-21 17:37 | Will "Arirang - BTS" be the top album for 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $347.89 |
| 07-20 14:46 | Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026? | BUY | 0.0788997203 | $94.49 |
| 07-20 12:45 | Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $11.90 |
| 07-20 12:43 | Will Swim – BTS be the top song for 2026? | BUY | 0.577452144 | $866.98 |
| 07-20 12:41 | Will Justin Bieber's monthly listeners figure hit 150m by August 31? | BUY | 0.8875915962 | $173.21 |