Uncsgotmotion
0xa1daaeec64247b566b2a3b69c1fd7a338d122edc
- Realised P&L
- $-234.93
- Volume
- $3.8k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $96.80
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration26.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? · Yes | 0.447 | 0.255 | $57.10 | −$42.90 |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.225 | $19.29 | −$40.71 |
| Will Kanye West and Bianca Censori separate in 2026? · Yes | 0.444 | 0.145 | $16.34 | −$33.66 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.229 | 0.045 | $4.50 | −$18.40 |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will Canada win on 2026-07-04? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$148.98 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$63.83at 0.378US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
- +$48.80at 0.500Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
- +$42.55at 0.497US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
- +$40.50at 0.295US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
- +$30.30at 0.690US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-03 22:41 | Will Canada win on 2026-07-04? | BUY | 0.209999999 | $148.98 |
| 04-03 19:00 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | SELL | 0.86 | $153.30 |
| 03-20 19:23 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.37 | $121.88 |
| 03-20 19:20 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.6899999987 | $123.00 |
| 03-15 21:22 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | SELL | 0.86 | $113.83 |
| 03-08 00:59 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | BUY | 0.6999999988 | $60.00 |
| 03-08 00:59 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | BUY | 0.5599999969 | $50.00 |
| 03-08 00:58 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | BUY | 0.4465800897 | $100.00 |
| 03-07 20:35 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? | SELL | 0.92 | $92.55 |
| 03-01 00:07 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.3716654988 | $50.00 |
| 03-01 00:05 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? | BUY | 0.4970178926 | $50.00 |
| 03-01 00:04 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY | 0.3777335939 | $50.00 |
| 02-28 22:10 | Will Kanye West and Bianca Censori separate in 2026? | BUY | 0.443581376 | $50.00 |
| 02-28 22:04 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | SELL | 0.988 | $98.80 |
| 01-16 20:31 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $50.00 |