fourthToWin
0xa1d1f219b49a62a3f0572997c615e98a6ab3a269
- Realised P&L
- $2.5k
- Volume
- $71.1k
- Markets traded
- 150
- Open portfolio
- $101.79
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded150
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026? · No | 0.870 | 0.977 | $51.29 | +$5.59 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.997 | $49.85 | +$12.85 |
| Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? · Yes | 0.191 | 0.006 | $0.65 | −$18.45 |
| LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 1 Winner · Gen.G | 0.740 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$444.00 |
| LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner · Movistar KOI | 0.626 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$250.10at 0.750LoL: LYON vs LOUD - Game 4 Winner
- +$249.60at 0.808LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 2 Winner
- +$210.14at 0.750LoL: LYON vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner
- +$171.99at 0.908First Round Pool B: USA vs. Italy
- +$162.89at 0.819LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 3 Winner
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 20:33 | LoL: LOS vs LYON - Game 2 Winner | BUY | 0.34 | $44.20 |
| 10-31 17:44 | LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner | BUY | 0.62 | $37.20 |
| 10-31 17:43 | LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner | BUY | 0.63 | $63.00 |
| 10-30 21:37 | LoL: Team Liquid vs LOS - Game 2 Winner | BUY | 0.84 | $252.00 |
| 10-26 20:23 | LoL: LOS vs Team Secret Whales - Game 2 Winner | BUY | 0.95 | $342.00 |
| 10-26 19:32 | LoL: LOS vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 Winner | BUY | 0.84 | $504.00 |
| 10-26 19:31 | LoL: LOS vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 Winner | BUY | 0.79 | $237.00 |
| 10-26 19:31 | LoL: LOS vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 Winner | SELL | 0.15 | $22.50 |
| 10-26 19:19 | LoL: LOS vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 Winner | BUY | 0.82 | $123.00 |
| 10-25 21:37 | LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 2 Winner | BUY | 0.8 | $240.00 |
| 10-25 21:37 | LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 2 Winner | BUY | 0.8 | $800.00 |
| 10-25 21:05 | LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 1 Winner | BUY | 0.75 | $300.00 |
| 10-25 19:29 | LoL: Dplus KIA vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner | BUY | 0.87 | $174.00 |
| 10-25 19:23 | LoL: Dplus KIA vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner | BUY | 0.77 | $77.00 |
| 10-18 19:49 | LoL: Karmine Corp vs MVK Esports - Game 3 Winner | BUY | 0.8 | $80.00 |