fourthToWin
0xa1d1f219b49a62a3f0572997c615e98a6ab3a269
- Realised P&L
- $2.5k
- Volume
- $66.1k
- Markets traded
- 136
- Open portfolio
- $185.40
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.7%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded136
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration8.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · No | 0.700 | 0.945 | $70.87 | +$18.37 |
| Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026? · No | 0.870 | 0.896 | $47.08 | +$1.39 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.845 | $42.25 | +$5.25 |
| Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? · No | 0.810 | 0.795 | $23.85 | −$0.45 |
| Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? · Yes | 0.191 | 0.013 | $1.35 | −$17.75 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$250.10at 0.750LoL: LYON vs LOUD - Game 4 Winner
- +$210.14at 0.750LoL: LYON vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner
- +$171.99at 0.908First Round Pool B: USA vs. Italy
- +$162.89at 0.819LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 3 Winner
- +$152.50at 0.729LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales - Game 3 Winner
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-07 15:09 | Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? | SELL | 0.79 | $34.18 |
| 06-06 15:09 | Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.62 | $186.00 |
| 06-06 15:08 | Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? | SELL | 0.1924368421 | $7.31 |
| 06-06 15:06 | Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.32 | $9.60 |
| 06-06 15:06 | Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.00 |
| 05-26 17:18 | Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? | BUY | 0.191 | $19.10 |
| 05-25 18:57 | Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.76 | $76.00 |
| 05-23 20:44 | Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.41 | $20.50 |
| 05-23 15:43 | Will Kimi Antonelli win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.26 | $13.00 |
| 04-18 11:18 | LoL: DN SOOPers vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner | BUY | 0.91 | $1.1k |
| 03-27 02:13 | Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | BUY | 0.92 | $46.00 |
| 03-26 18:50 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets | BUY | 0.91 | $45.50 |
| 03-22 15:40 | LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner | SELL | 0.9801785146 | $258.94 |
| 03-22 14:31 | LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner | BUY | 0.84 | $168.00 |
| 03-22 14:26 | LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner | BUY | 0.68 | $68.00 |