ewuly123
0xa1b846a4dee3ee08be92b111b7ebfd3cf70a392a
- Realised P&L
- $347.24
- Volume
- $4.6k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $152.31
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar7.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration57.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration66.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.968 | 0.980 | $101.19 | +$1.19 |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.880 | 0.855 | $19.43 | −$0.57 |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.790 | 0.815 | $10.32 | +$0.32 |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.890 | 0.895 | $10.06 | +$0.06 |
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.146 | 0.117 | $7.98 | −$2.02 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.030 | $3.33 | −$6.67 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? · No | 0.416 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$212.96at 0.250MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?
- +$77.96at 0.450Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?
- +$20.78at 0.490Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?
- +$18.16at 0.497Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale?
- +$14.69at 0.776Over $20M committed to the Credible public sale?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 10:26 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | BUY | 0.4158415677 | $10.00 |
| 10-13 09:44 | Will Marine Le Pen win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.8799999965 | $20.00 |
| 10-11 05:05 | Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.9679999999 | $100.00 |
| 10-11 05:05 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.8899999252 | $10.00 |
| 10-11 05:05 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.1459999993 | $10.00 |
| 10-11 05:05 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.7899999905 | $10.00 |
| 07-13 17:04 | Over $20M committed to the Credible public sale? | BUY | 0.7630988751 | $50.00 |
| 07-13 17:03 | Over $12M committed to the Credible public sale? | BUY | 0.9277733433 | $100.00 |
| 06-03 08:56 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.004 | $10.00 |
| 05-05 11:12 | Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999919 | $10.00 |
| 04-30 13:26 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.6406875215 | $74.55 |
| 04-30 12:06 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.34 | $1.31 |
| 04-30 12:06 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.62 | $144.29 |
| 04-24 08:21 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.2599998648 | $1.00 |
| 04-20 14:48 | Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.8008329583 | $177.96 |