0xa19F594Fc8bdC8ca51DfC51cDD4B3B177E90EF67-1770810412713
0xa19f594fc8bdc8ca51dfc51cdd4b3b177e90ef67
- Realised P&L
- $-30.92
- Volume
- $1.7k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $24.68
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration81.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)37.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 57.0 and 57.9 in September? · No | 0.870 | 0.950 | $18.43 | +$1.55 |
| Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in September? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.265 | $3.18 | +$0.54 |
| Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in September? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.220 | $2.76 | +$0.00 |
| Will the South African Reserve Bank decrease the repo rate after the September meeting? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.007 | $0.31 | −$3.86 |
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $680b and $690b on March 31? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.22 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on April 19? · Yes | 0.268 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$24.22 |
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.72 |
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $700b and $710b on March 31? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.35 |
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $690b and $700b on March 31? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.23 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$71.00at 0.290Adelaide 36ers vs. Sydney Kings
- +$9.00at 0.250Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $640b on March 31?
- +$7.71at 0.767Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on September 14?
- +$-0.50at 0.218Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in September?
- +$-1.52at 0.607Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 14?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 03:10 | Will the South African Reserve Bank decrease the repo rate after the September meeting? | BUY | 0.0991132369 | $1.32 |
| 09-18 00:42 | Will the South African Reserve Bank decrease the repo rate after the September meeting? | BUY | 0.1003615339 | $2.85 |
| 09-18 00:24 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in September? | BUY | 0.22 | $2.64 |
| 09-18 00:24 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in September? | BUY | 0.219999992 | $2.76 |
| 09-17 22:13 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in September? | SELL | 0.19 | $2.66 |
| 09-17 22:13 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in September? | SELL | 0.21 | $2.94 |
| 09-17 21:22 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in September? | BUY | 0.21 | $2.94 |
| 09-17 21:22 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in September? | BUY | 0.22 | $3.08 |
| 09-14 13:46 | Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on September 14? | BUY | 0.73 | $2.19 |
| 09-14 13:45 | Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on September 14? | BUY | 0.7299999684 | $3.70 |
| 09-14 13:45 | Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on September 14? | BUY | 0.7299999684 | $3.70 |
| 09-14 13:37 | Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on September 14? | BUY | 0.78 | $3.90 |
| 09-14 13:37 | Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on September 14? | BUY | 0.78 | $3.90 |
| 09-14 13:37 | Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on September 14? | BUY | 0.78 | $3.90 |
| 09-14 13:37 | Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on September 14? | BUY | 0.78 | $3.90 |