0xa18cddf73c1984ea6a2f719369e98e155cda7eb2
0xa18cddf73c1984ea6a2f719369e98e155cda7eb2
- Realised P&L
- $-14.74
- Volume
- $151.95
- Markets traded
- 43
- Open portfolio
- $1.54
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-9.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded43
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample41 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)39.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.2M and 7.3M in August? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.260 | $1.08 | +$0.08 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.230 | $0.46 | −$0.54 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.01at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$1.91at 0.412Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?
- +$1.73at 0.422Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$1.57at 0.560Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
- +$1.10at 0.639Will Trump say "Friend of Mine" during remarks in Georgia?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 16:54 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 08:52 | Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.2M and 7.3M in August? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 08:02 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 21:50 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | BUY | 0.749999625 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 13:45 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 05:19 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 04:41 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 20:20 | Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 22:25 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 13:15 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 7 to September 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 04:58 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $1.00 |
| 09-07 16:36 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.4799998272 | $1.00 |
| 09-07 13:20 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $502.50 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999921 | $1.00 |
| 09-01 22:03 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.71 | $2.00 |
| 09-01 12:29 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $2.00 |