porterkyle
0xa17d5be4944dc3b6574b7920e8206b3effbcd98c
- Realised P&L
- $19.14
- Volume
- $11.5k
- Markets traded
- 84
- Open portfolio
- $108.16
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded84
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.680 | $43.65 | +$3.85 |
| Will Mikaela Waltersson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Halland? · Yes | 0.810 | 0.875 | $25.60 | +$1.90 |
| Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on October 14? · No | 0.570 | 0.500 | $20.35 | −$2.85 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 16? · Yes | 0.880 | 0.850 | $18.56 | −$0.65 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.80at 0.940Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31?
- +$4.51at 0.958Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31?
- +$1.72at 0.984Will Google have the top AI model on June 30?
- +$1.31at 0.988Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30?
- +$1.20at 0.989Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 07:15 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on October 14? | BUY | 0.5699999914 | $23.20 |
| 09-27 06:44 | Asian Games Men: India vs Afghanistan | BUY | 0.7799999932 | $20.54 |
| 01-31 13:31 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? | BUY | 0.9989999986 | $29.93 |
| 01-30 13:02 | Will XRP dip to $1.20 in January? | BUY | 0.9979999967 | $14.46 |
| 01-30 12:25 | Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $28.58 |
| 01-30 11:57 | Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $37.33 |
| 12-30 08:31 | Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? | BUY | 0.9979999553 | $8.39 |
| 12-29 21:24 | US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? | BUY | 0.9979999625 | $12.36 |
| 12-29 20:58 | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.997999933 | $9.08 |
| 12-29 20:49 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? | BUY | 0.9979999874 | $23.38 |
| 12-29 19:30 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $64.19 |
| 10-31 16:08 | Will Solana dip to $150 in October? | BUY | 0.9990000004 | $19.99 |
| 10-31 15:27 | Will Google have the top AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.995 | $18.03 |
| 10-30 17:21 | Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? | BUY | 0.9919999728 | $33.28 |
| 09-29 16:06 | Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September? | BUY | 0.9989999631 | $19.27 |