Crespo2
0xa1690ed6280d76bf18ec3499f31bc9fcd27b6a8d
- Realised P&L
- $-29.40
- Volume
- $2.2k
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $7.31
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will LEVIATÁN Qualify to VCT Champs 2026? · No | 0.401 | 0.986 | $7.31 | +$4.33 |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$23.40 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET · Up | 0.565 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.99 |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.064 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.20 |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-08? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.64at 0.360Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in January 2026?
- +$4.89at 0.470Will Tunisia win on 2026-01-03?
- +$3.51at 0.100Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?
- +$2.70at 0.065Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?
- +$2.30at 0.770Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 1 to January 3, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-05 23:05 | Will LOUD Qualify to VCT Champs 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $4.65 |
| 09-05 21:28 | Will LEVIATÁN Qualify to VCT Champs 2026? | SELL | 0.789 | $4.73 |
| 09-04 21:17 | Will LEVIATÁN Qualify to VCT Champs 2026? | BUY | 0.4009999808 | $5.38 |
| 03-17 21:39 | Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | SELL | 0.11 | $5.26 |
| 02-16 01:19 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET | BUY | 0.5886674367 | $19.51 |
| 01-19 08:17 | Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? | BUY | 0.268 | $5.36 |
| 01-16 02:03 | US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.91 | $9.10 |
| 01-15 08:42 | Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) | BUY | 0.48 | $4.80 |
| 01-15 08:32 | US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $7.80 |
| 01-13 16:09 | Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? | SELL | 0.2 | $10.00 |
| 01-13 13:44 | Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.542 | $27.10 |
| 01-13 03:16 | Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? | SELL | 0.13 | $1.30 |
| 01-11 00:28 | Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $9.00 |
| 01-11 00:25 | Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 01-08 16:47 | Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-08? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.60 |