0xA156A9Ff3db348cF88Ab6346C54Cf1Df89a4639f-1768451915152
0xa156a9ff3db348cf88ab6346c54cf1df89a4639f
- Realised P&L
- $-331.32
- Volume
- $13.7k
- Markets traded
- 67
- Open portfolio
- $16.35
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded67
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration92.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 in October? · No | 0.930 | 0.940 | $15.16 | +$0.16 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? · No | 0.862 | 0.639 | $0.74 | −$0.26 |
| Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? · No | 0.920 | 0.415 | $0.45 | −$0.55 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September? · No | 0.670 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.90 |
| Will Russia capture Toretske by March 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $40 in March? · No | 0.910 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 26? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August? · No | 0.900 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$160.99 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August? · No | 0.764 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$98.21 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$23.27at 0.830Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in July?
- +$23.01at 0.993Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?
- +$20.00at 0.500Republican House Odds Up or Down this week?
- +$11.28at 0.780Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in March?
- +$10.29at 0.927Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 09:57 | Will Ethereum reach $3,500 in October? | BUY | 0.9299999975 | $15.00 |
| 09-20 08:48 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September? | BUY | 0.6699999978 | $17.90 |
| 09-14 06:59 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.21 | $18.93 |
| 09-03 14:03 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.6099999993 | $54.98 |
| 09-01 10:11 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.42 | $57.60 |
| 08-29 09:07 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5799999987 | $79.55 |
| 08-29 09:07 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August? | SELL | 0.984 | $81.59 |
| 08-26 12:51 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August? | BUY | 0.8789999987 | $72.89 |
| 08-25 03:16 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August? | SELL | 0.553 | $75.57 |
| 08-21 23:16 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August? | BUY | 0.7169999941 | $97.98 |
| 08-20 00:27 | Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August? | BUY | 0.7639999988 | $98.21 |
| 08-14 09:57 | Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August? | BUY | 0.9 | $160.99 |
| 07-22 02:43 | Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 22? | SELL | 0.88 | $14.66 |
| 07-22 02:37 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 22? | SELL | 0.87 | $2.61 |
| 07-22 00:28 | Will Marat Kambolov win the 2026 South Ossetia presidential elections? | BUY | 0.81 | $81.00 |