Sir.Bogdanoff
0xa130e3fa8fce43495dbb649202630ad5c1f6b662
- Realised P&L
- $4.2k
- Volume
- $95.0k
- Markets traded
- 151
- Open portfolio
- $10.06
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded151
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anduril IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.449 | 0.045 | $10.06 | −$90.38 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET · Down | 0.452 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.20 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET · Up | 0.454 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.34 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET · Up | 0.289 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.35 |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 8? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.02 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET · Down | 0.447 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.30 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET · Down | 0.389 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$27.32 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.6kat 0.335Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?
- +$2.4kat 0.010Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before June?
- +$297.93at 0.935Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before June?
- +$188.40at 0.176Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by June 30?
- +$58.05at 0.470Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-10 21:11 | Anduril IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.449304196 | $100.44 |
| 03-08 07:50 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on March 7? | SELL | 0.999 | $112.76 |
| 03-07 05:26 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on March 7? | BUY | 0.626010575 | $70.66 |
| 03-06 14:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET | BUY | 0.3499999615 | $4.87 |
| 03-06 14:13 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET | BUY | 0.359999977 | $4.87 |
| 03-06 14:00 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? | SELL | 0.1139198689 | $80.67 |
| 03-06 13:32 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.0749999846 | $4.25 |
| 03-06 13:32 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.076 | $15.00 |
| 03-06 13:00 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 8? | BUY | 0.2099998744 | $1.02 |
| 03-06 13:00 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? | SELL | 0.1410775623 | $1.02 |
| 03-06 06:48 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.3694589761 | $39.00 |
| 03-06 06:39 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.3556441314 | $44.71 |
| 03-06 06:39 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? | SELL | 0.506 | $44.71 |
| 03-06 06:35 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.5213065988 | $40.85 |
| 03-06 05:40 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.48 | $4.80 |