marcusaudacious
0xa10978345926f122a2b30f9ffc8e35924a7fa628
- Realised P&L
- $-196.89
- Volume
- $149.2k
- Markets traded
- 73
- Open portfolio
- $343.93
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded73
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.405 | $255.15 | −$211.05 |
| Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.115 | $88.78 | −$27.02 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.78 |
| Will the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.45 |
| Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? · No | 0.042 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.06 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.88 |
| Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$24.45 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$562.39at 0.272Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?
- +$557.14at 0.110Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $109K on June 10?
- +$352.50at 0.530Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?
- +$325.88at 0.587Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be less than 5%?
- +$171.84at 0.771Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-23 12:21 | Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.04 | $2.00 |
| 02-04 18:14 | Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $10.80 |
| 02-04 18:10 | Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $13.50 |
| 02-04 18:03 | Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $11.85 |
| 02-04 18:01 | Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $14.10 |
| 02-04 17:58 | Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $12.75 |
| 02-04 17:55 | Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $10.80 |
| 02-04 17:52 | Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $10.50 |
| 02-04 17:49 | Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $13.50 |
| 02-04 17:45 | Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $18.00 |
| 01-10 23:17 | Will the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $4.05 |
| 01-10 23:17 | Will the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $4.05 |
| 01-10 23:04 | Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)? | BUY | 0.04 | $4.85 |
| 01-10 23:03 | Will the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $1.35 |
| 01-10 23:03 | Will the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $9.00 |