0xA10629b6260585824EeA9e537Fe355175273a5Df-1770233517592
0xa10629b6260585824eea9e537fe355175273a5df
- Realised P&L
- $-159.60
- Volume
- $90.3k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $231.13
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration30.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.284 | 0.245 | $176.83 | −$28.22 |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? · Yes | 0.412 | 0.140 | $54.30 | −$105.71 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? · No | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$62.00 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? · No | 0.659 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.4k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$763.57at 0.687US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
- +$698.31at 0.713US forces enter Iran by December 31?
- +$449.58at 0.690Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?
- +$306.45at 0.620Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$285.88at 0.470US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-24 20:14 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY | 0.001 | $62.00 |
| 04-24 20:13 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | SELL | 0.31 | $30.05 |
| 04-24 20:12 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.2 | $33.33 |
| 04-14 05:27 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | BUY | 0.3039999993 | $295.18 |
| 04-14 05:27 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | SELL | 0.2925182146 | $295.17 |
| 04-04 07:45 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | BUY | 0.96 | $602.76 |
| 04-04 07:44 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY | 0.991 | $1000.00 |
| 04-04 07:43 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | BUY | 0.96 | $500.00 |
| 04-03 15:06 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | SELL | 0.84 | $4.6k |
| 03-30 15:28 | Will India strike Pakistan by March 31? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.21 |
| 03-30 04:28 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.7699999991 | $35.07 |
| 03-30 04:28 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.0681535083 | $35.06 |
| 03-29 18:36 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.08 | $41.16 |
| 03-29 18:35 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | SELL | 0.75 | $41.16 |
| 03-29 16:48 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.7599999993 | $922.88 |