PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

parbdev

0xa0bcf066ba16d526ed482008762b3263600102e6

Realised P&L
$-17.70
Volume
$4.3k
Markets traded
302
Open portfolio
$158.73

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded302
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration10.3% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration17.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Paul Skenes strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season? · No0.9480.977$28.45+$0.84
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? · Yes0.9500.968$20.90+$0.37
Will the Waddani Party (Somaliland National Party) win the most seats in the next Somaliland parliamentary election? · No0.9380.999$19.01+$1.16
Will PS win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? · No0.9400.968$18.68+$0.54
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? · No0.9470.990$12.63+$0.54
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? · No0.8980.942$11.23+$0.52
Will Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés be the next Secretary General of the United Nations? · No0.9540.832$9.48$1.39
Will MUNDO-GB
 win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? · No0.9700.974$7.95+$0.03
Will James Comey be arrested before 2027? · No0.9420.950$6.45+$0.06
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? · Yes0.8600.895$6.21+$0.24
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PNL + USR? · No0.9420.880$5.60$0.39
Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31? · No0.9200.945$5.54+$0.15
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? · Yes0.9300.485$4.06$3.73
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? · Yes0.9100.983$2.53+$0.19
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? · Yes0.8900.000$0.00$1.66

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-03 09:00Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PNL + USR?BUY0.942$5.99
09-03 00:25Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?BUY0.93$7.79
08-21 00:01Will João Pedro be named to the 2026 PFA Premier League Team of the Year?BUY0.94$5.83
08-19 14:40Will Dave Bronson advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?BUY0.97$8.01
08-19 13:19Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?BUY0.97$7.52
07-30 11:48Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31?BUY0.92$5.39
07-30 11:47Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by July 31?BUY0.965$7.54
07-17 20:45Will the Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice (EZEMA) win the most seats in the 2026 Ethiopian general election?BUY0.948$5.10
07-17 15:30Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?BUY0.86$5.96
07-16 15:30Will Hamarkameratene win on 2026-03-22?BUY0.94$8.60
07-16 10:56Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?BUY0.898$10.71
07-13 11:41Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?SELL0.813$6.38
07-11 21:52Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?BUY0.9415817378$6.39
07-11 13:37Will the Waddani Party (Somaliland National Party) win the most seats in the next Somaliland parliamentary election?BUY0.937265625$8.40
07-11 07:42Will PS win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?BUY0.922$10.84