Ajsmiith90
0xa0b27418ec757209fa2c53d4ccbf35a9bfe0e22b
- Realised P&L
- $-783.19
- Volume
- $27.4k
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $273.85
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration46.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample27 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)29.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration85.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House · Yes | 0.202 | 0.105 | $232.94 | −$214.81 |
| Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? · Yes | 0.051 | 0.021 | $40.90 | −$59.21 |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$80.92 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$242.21at 0.311Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
- +$121.71at 0.451Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$58.34at 0.1462024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104
- +$55.75at 0.080GOP wins popular vote by 1-2%?
- +$28.13at 0.640Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-17 10:33 | Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? | BUY | 0.06 | $66.00 |
| 01-17 10:25 | Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? | BUY | 0.059 | $1.77 |
| 01-17 10:21 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | BUY | 0.21 | $210.00 |
| 01-17 10:13 | Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? | BUY | 0.0459306481 | $12.34 |
| 01-17 10:02 | Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? | BUY | 0.0364269373 | $20.00 |
| 01-06 08:08 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | BUY | 0.1799999976 | $53.47 |
| 11-04 07:07 | Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | BUY | 0.16 | $149.95 |
| 10-19 07:11 | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | BUY | 0.4199999984 | $80.92 |
| 10-19 07:10 | Will Winsome Earle-Sears win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | BUY | 0.0739705598 | $19.00 |
| 10-19 07:06 | Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | BUY | 0.2 | $100.00 |
| 10-10 03:18 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | BUY | 0.025 | $149.93 |
| 10-09 20:26 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | BUY | 0.0484230156 | $149.93 |
| 09-06 03:15 | Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? | BUY | 0.025 | $29.86 |
| 09-06 03:04 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | BUY | 0.0469139907 | $120.00 |
| 03-31 06:10 | Wisconsin Supreme Court election: Susan Crawford vs. Brad Schimel | BUY | 0.16 | $52.45 |