Jan Sebastian
0xa0a4a6e94614e21cdd30f2fb7cccf91f948291ec
- Realised P&L
- $-468.94
- Volume
- $15.9k
- Markets traded
- 51
- Open portfolio
- $5.96
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded51
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration55.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample44 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration81.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.134 | 0.006 | $4.84 | −$95.04 |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.004 | $1.12 | −$14.88 |
| Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? · No | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Pope Leo XIV be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$48.00 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? · Yes | 0.027 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.98 |
| Will Google One be #1 Grossing App in Play Store on December 19? · No | 0.017 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.00 |
| Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.122 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$328.93at 0.165Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2024?
- +$78.56at 0.239Will Taylor Swift be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year?
- +$64.33at 0.189$WIF listed on Coinbase in 2024?
- +$36.54at 0.570Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$26.84at 0.566Did Israeli intelligence have advanced knowledge of the Attack?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-22 11:00 | Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.1340112301 | $99.88 |
| 12-22 10:46 | Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.0502166436 | $16.00 |
| 12-19 14:12 | Will Google One be #1 Grossing App in Play Store on December 19? | BUY | 0.0165475937 | $16.00 |
| 12-09 18:22 | Will Pope Leo XIV be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? | BUY | 0.4699999975 | $48.00 |
| 12-09 18:18 | Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.1217686787 | $50.00 |
| 12-09 18:10 | Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? | BUY | 0.3196306776 | $100.00 |
| 12-09 17:59 | No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.0269999993 | $35.98 |
| 04-28 12:01 | Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | BUY | 0.1989999852 | $10.00 |
| 04-28 12:00 | Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? | BUY | 0.0649402477 | $35.00 |
| 11-15 09:07 | Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | BUY | 0.32 | $70.00 |
| 11-06 09:35 | $WIF listed on Coinbase in 2024? | BUY | 0.1890885845 | $15.00 |
| 11-06 09:32 | Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024? | BUY | 0.2465827003 | $26.00 |
| 07-31 09:55 | China wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | BUY | 0.25 | $40.00 |
| 07-31 09:54 | [Single Market] Will Kamala Harris win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.971 | $35.96 |
| 07-28 09:05 | China wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | BUY | 0.0444761357 | $20.00 |