0xa09107E4DF94dc0F1815721058dcd38273D69150-1768032562635
0xa09107e4df94dc0f1815721058dcd38273d69150
- Realised P&L
- $-19.05
- Volume
- $849.63
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $4.37
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on October 2? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.420 | $2.10 | −$0.05 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on October 2? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.265 | $1.32 | −$0.07 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on October 2? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.185 | $0.93 | −$0.13 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on October 1? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.003 | $0.02 | +$0.01 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or below on October 1? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$0.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on September 26? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.30 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on September 27? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.30 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.41at 0.788Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
- +$1.11at 0.779Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on September 30?
- +$0.79at 0.790Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
- +$0.63at 0.331Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on September 29?
- +$0.54at 0.710Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on September 26?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 07:28 | Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.21 | $1.05 |
| 10-01 07:28 | Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.43 | $2.15 |
| 10-01 07:28 | Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.28 | $1.40 |
| 09-29 14:14 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 29? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.05 |
| 09-29 07:31 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on September 30? | BUY | 0.77 | $3.85 |
| 09-29 03:16 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 29? | BUY | 0.024 | $0.65 |
| 09-28 18:11 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 30? | SELL | 0.46 | $2.30 |
| 09-28 17:14 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 30? | BUY | 0.48 | $2.40 |
| 09-28 17:13 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on September 30? | SELL | 0.28 | $1.40 |
| 09-28 17:11 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on September 30? | BUY | 0.28 | $1.40 |
| 09-28 13:33 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 29? | SELL | 0.48 | $2.40 |
| 09-28 13:08 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on September 29? | SELL | 0.56 | $1.72 |
| 09-28 12:49 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on September 29? | BUY | 0.62 | $3.10 |
| 09-28 10:55 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on September 28? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.93 |
| 09-28 10:44 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on September 29? | SELL | 0.07 | $0.35 |