kuaiduole
0xa074807787101278ae22463fb850c9a418af24b1
- Realised P&L
- $-5.82
- Volume
- $5.2k
- Markets traded
- 78
- Open portfolio
- $16.96
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded78
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration79.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? · No | 0.997 | 0.997 | $13.39 | −$0.01 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No | 0.650 | 0.695 | $2.78 | +$0.18 |
| Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.002 | $0.79 | −$0.26 |
| Will TurboTax: File Your Tax Return be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 17? · No | 0.990 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.17 |
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.45at 0.973Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 8?
- +$0.71at 0.649Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $390 in September?
- +$0.34at 0.996Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
- +$0.28at 0.997Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
- +$0.18at 0.998Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 07:24 | Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $13.40 |
| 10-06 07:22 | Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.05 |
| 10-06 07:17 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.65 | $2.60 |
| 09-21 10:22 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | BUY | 0.9969999607 | $15.00 |
| 09-21 10:18 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $390 in September? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.30 |
| 09-21 10:13 | Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.999 | $16.29 |
| 08-04 10:10 | Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.30 |
| 07-24 07:56 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.30 |
| 06-14 06:13 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? | BUY | 0.997 | $1.00 |
| 06-14 06:13 | Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.16 |
| 06-14 06:13 | Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.22 |
| 06-14 06:13 | Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.18 |
| 06-14 06:12 | Israel closes its airspace by June 14? | BUY | 0.994 | $1.00 |
| 06-14 06:12 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? | BUY | 0.9989993058 | $1.18 |
| 06-14 06:12 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.12 |