PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

f21g5fd

0xa06fb5d31ff17b90caf0414ddf96f49d0ff190ac

Realised P&L
$515.62
Volume
$44.6k
Markets traded
251
Open portfolio
$193.24

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded251
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)2.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration21.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,176,000 on September 30? · Yes0.7200.835$41.75+$5.75
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026? · No0.5400.635$31.75+$4.75
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? · Yes0.5400.620$31.00+$4.00
Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 4.00% and 4.49%? · Yes0.4900.375$18.75$5.75
Will Marie Morell be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Östergötland? · No0.8800.860$17.20$0.40
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? · No0.8500.845$16.90$0.10
Will Arthur Lira win the most votes in the 2026 Alagoas Senate election? · No0.7100.595$11.90$2.30
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.4%? · Yes0.2400.135$6.75$5.25
Will Samanda de Lula win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election? · Yes0.3100.185$3.70$2.50
Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2600.155$3.10$2.10
Will Elmedin Konaković be the next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina? · Yes0.2000.125$2.50$1.50
Will DJI be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? · Yes0.1500.105$2.10$0.90
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be at least $345,000 on September 30? · Yes0.5100.040$2.00$23.50
Will Nkosindiphile Xhakaza be the next mayor of Ekurhuleni? · Yes0.4100.073$1.46$6.74
Will Nassourdine Imamov fight Sean Strickland next? · No0.2900.052$1.05$4.75

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-15 08:44Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?SELL0.46$9.20
09-12 22:07Will Xiaomi be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?SELL0.83$16.60
09-02 22:00Will Belit Onay win the next Hannover mayoral election?SELL0.8$16.00
09-02 16:14US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?SELL0.11$0.22
08-23 14:23Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?SELL0.31$6.20
08-20 07:20Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?SELL0.21$4.20
08-20 07:19Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Pará?SELL0.89$17.80
08-19 20:06Will S8UL Esports Win the 2026 Esports Content Group of the Year Award?SELL0.34$6.80
08-19 14:38Will Democrats win exactly 9 House seats in Pennsylvania in the 2026 midterm elections?SELL0.83$16.60
08-19 13:27Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?SELL0.83$16.60
08-19 03:28Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?SELL0.38$7.60
08-18 23:57Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?SELL0.89$17.80
08-18 04:10Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 18?SELL0.49$9.80
08-18 04:09Will Marathon win Best Multiplayer at the 2026 Game Awards?SELL0.77$15.40
08-17 06:31Will Anyone's Legend Win the Shortest Game in LPL 2026 Split 3?SELL0.09$1.80