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Traders

orangeor

0xa02a7006aeeca7887b1a8bf0afb9926a579c86c6

Realised P&L
$-2.1k
Volume
$365.6k
Markets traded
17
Open portfolio
$15.4k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded17
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
CautionProfit concentration33.6% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample6 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)83.3%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration64.9% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes0.7401.000$10.0k+$2.6k
US strike on Mexico by March 31? · No0.9001.000$2.0k+$200.00
Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo · Yes0.2400.025$979.58−$8.6k
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026? · No0.8000.850$850.00+$50.00
US strike on Mexico by December 31? · No0.7200.972$769.35+$199.17
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.2m barrels per day in 2026? · No0.6530.430$627.79−$326.29
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · No0.7400.974$157.15+$37.69
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? · Yes0.2501.000$35.65+$26.74
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? · Yes0.2220.000$0.00−$285.73
World Chess Championship 2024 Winner · Ding0.5760.000$0.00−$2.4k
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? · No0.7100.000$0.00−$7.1k

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
02-03 23:15Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?SELL0.11$4.2k
02-03 23:15Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?SELL0.25$18.15
01-28 19:48US government shutdown Saturday?SELL0.2997592721$1.2k
01-27 10:42US government shutdown Saturday?SELL0.2$2.0k
01-27 09:46US government shutdown Saturday?SELL0.2$2.0k
01-27 09:41US government shutdown Saturday?SELL0.2$2.0k
01-26 16:36US government shutdown Saturday?SELL0.19$1.9k
01-25 23:57US government shutdown Saturday?BUY0.21$2.0k
01-25 23:56US government shutdown Saturday?BUY0.21$2.1k
01-25 22:42US strike on Mexico by December 31?BUY0.72$570.18
01-25 22:39Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?BUY0.15$5.7k
01-18 21:41Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for Denmark by Feburary 1?BUY0.64$64.00
01-18 21:40Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for Denmark by Feburary 1?BUY0.63$8.51
01-15 09:52US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?SELL0.561385$561.38
01-15 09:52US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?BUY0.6$633.77