orangeor
0xa02a7006aeeca7887b1a8bf0afb9926a579c86c6
- Realised P&L
- $-2.1k
- Volume
- $365.6k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $15.4k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration33.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)83.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.740 | 1.000 | $10.0k | +$2.6k |
| US strike on Mexico by March 31? · No | 0.900 | 1.000 | $2.0k | +$200.00 |
| Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo · Yes | 0.240 | 0.025 | $979.58 | −$8.6k |
| Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.850 | $850.00 | +$50.00 |
| US strike on Mexico by December 31? · No | 0.720 | 0.972 | $769.35 | +$199.17 |
| Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.2m barrels per day in 2026? · No | 0.653 | 0.430 | $627.79 | −$326.29 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · No | 0.740 | 0.974 | $157.15 | +$37.69 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 1.000 | $35.65 | +$26.74 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? · Yes | 0.222 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$285.73 |
| World Chess Championship 2024 Winner · Ding | 0.576 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.4k |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.710 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.1k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.1kat 0.780Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in December?
- +$1.7kat 0.200US government shutdown Saturday?
- +$1.4kat 0.604US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?
- +$550.00at 0.633Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for Denmark by Feburary 1?
- +$530.00at 0.470US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-03 23:15 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.11 | $4.2k |
| 02-03 23:15 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.25 | $18.15 |
| 01-28 19:48 | US government shutdown Saturday? | SELL | 0.2997592721 | $1.2k |
| 01-27 10:42 | US government shutdown Saturday? | SELL | 0.2 | $2.0k |
| 01-27 09:46 | US government shutdown Saturday? | SELL | 0.2 | $2.0k |
| 01-27 09:41 | US government shutdown Saturday? | SELL | 0.2 | $2.0k |
| 01-26 16:36 | US government shutdown Saturday? | SELL | 0.19 | $1.9k |
| 01-25 23:57 | US government shutdown Saturday? | BUY | 0.21 | $2.0k |
| 01-25 23:56 | US government shutdown Saturday? | BUY | 0.21 | $2.1k |
| 01-25 22:42 | US strike on Mexico by December 31? | BUY | 0.72 | $570.18 |
| 01-25 22:39 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $5.7k |
| 01-18 21:41 | Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for Denmark by Feburary 1? | BUY | 0.64 | $64.00 |
| 01-18 21:40 | Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for Denmark by Feburary 1? | BUY | 0.63 | $8.51 |
| 01-15 09:52 | US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | SELL | 0.561385 | $561.38 |
| 01-15 09:52 | US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $633.77 |