ABCDEF1
0xa00c1c9d91ddedeadb82cf9697e4af6f47a37883
- Realised P&L
- $-1.4k
- Volume
- $98.7k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $3.5k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.213 | 0.162 | $1.8k | −$569.42 |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.049 | 0.060 | $1.1k | +$196.91 |
| Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.012 | 0.013 | $625.00 | +$25.01 |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? · Yes | 0.056 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$593.98 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? · Yes | 0.048 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$140.00 |
| Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 · Under | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in July? · No | 0.330 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$202.78 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes | 0.598 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$53.85 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.20at 0.500Will Bitcoin hit $100k today?
- +$-0.80at 0.550Will Bitcoin hit $100k today?
- +$-9.50at 0.104Will Bitcoin hit $100k today?
- +$-38.22at 0.025Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin in 2024?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-21 09:30 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.214 | $22.25 |
| 08-18 09:02 | Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in July? | SELL | 0.24 | $5.16 |
| 08-17 21:51 | Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.012 | $600.00 |
| 08-17 21:50 | Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.049 | $740.47 |
| 08-17 21:48 | Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in July? | SELL | 0.26 | $13.25 |
| 06-24 18:15 | Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 | BUY | 0.3099999895 | $20.00 |
| 04-08 06:09 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY | 0.0476123011 | $140.00 |
| 04-05 15:39 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.2134899387 | $2.4k |
| 10-09 07:49 | Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | BUY | 0.059 | $299.72 |
| 10-09 07:47 | Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | BUY | 0.058 | $101.71 |
| 10-09 07:43 | Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | BUY | 0.057 | $34.26 |
| 10-05 17:34 | Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | BUY | 0.046 | $97.00 |
| 11-25 07:26 | Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin in 2024? | BUY | 0.045 | $0.06 |
| 11-24 15:34 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.5983333333 | $53.85 |
| 11-24 14:43 | Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin in 2024? | BUY | 0.038 | $0.19 |