absolutenoidea
0x9feda0d624e5c4ba3fc119245aff786c630c6ffb
- Realised P&L
- $-3.7k
- Volume
- $116.2k
- Markets traded
- 83
- Open portfolio
- $1.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded83
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.620 | 0.815 | $815.00 | +$195.00 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.945 | $701.63 | +$137.36 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.049 | $239.92 | −$1.7k |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.190 | $10.69 | −$36.56 |
| Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? · Yes | 0.085 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$127.00 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.078 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$390.00 |
| Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? · Yes | 0.089 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$101.26 |
| Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 · Under | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$129.99 |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$235.00 |
| Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$37.27 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$744.48at 0.410Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June?
- +$435.01at 0.665Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?
- +$430.00at 0.780Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025?
- +$262.65at 0.890Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?
- +$230.00at 0.770Will Bitcoin dip to $107K in September?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-10 20:40 | Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 | SELL | 0.565 | $39.55 |
| 06-14 18:41 | Exact Score: Any Other Score? | BUY | 0.999 | $129.87 |
| 06-12 20:51 | Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.74 | $207.20 |
| 01-05 15:53 | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.39 | $1.9k |
| 01-03 21:19 | Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $370.00 |
| 12-30 10:57 | US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? | SELL | 0.9586851667 | $287.61 |
| 12-16 18:14 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? | SELL | 0.995 | $895.51 |
| 12-16 18:14 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? | SELL | 0.995 | $99.50 |
| 12-15 15:08 | Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? | SELL | 0.995 | $2.0k |
| 12-15 15:03 | Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? | SELL | 0.996 | $298.80 |
| 12-15 14:54 | Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? | SELL | 0.996 | $99.60 |
| 12-15 14:54 | Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? | SELL | 0.996 | $99.60 |
| 12-09 13:41 | Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2025? | BUY | 0.9732102118 | $1.7k |
| 12-08 20:42 | Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.63 | $18.28 |
| 12-08 17:53 | Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.86 | $430.00 |