Gamble.and.bankurpt
0x9fd4ca44be6bf74afc5987aa5b4305f5f748325c
- Realised P&L
- $-21.7k
- Volume
- $1.55M
- Markets traded
- 539
- Open portfolio
- $32.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded539
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.3kat 0.745Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m and 480m by January 31?
- +$2.1kat 0.013Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?
- +$1.4kat 0.836Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$969.36at 0.024Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + D66?
- +$814.98at 0.580Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-10 18:10 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.87 | $795.87 |
| 09-10 18:00 | Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.9299999992 | $33.00 |
| 09-10 18:00 | Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.9299999976 | $100.00 |
| 09-10 17:58 | Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.8 | $941.18 |
| 09-09 06:21 | Will the Democratic Party win the CA-48 House seat? | BUY | 0.8899999996 | $251.73 |
| 09-09 06:19 | Will the Democratic Party win the OH-01 House seat? | BUY | 0.8774619762 | $500.00 |
| 09-06 06:18 | Will the Republican Party win the FL-12 House seat? | BUY | 0.91 | $445.90 |
| 09-06 06:10 | Will the Democratic Party win the CA-22 House seat? | BUY | 0.88 | $50.00 |
| 09-06 06:09 | Will the Democratic Party win the CA-22 House seat? | BUY | 0.8647662674 | $456.00 |
| 09-05 07:56 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.85 | $960.74 |
| 08-26 12:21 | Will the Democratic Party win the NM-02 House seat? | BUY | 0.89 | $585.93 |
| 08-26 12:18 | Will the Democratic Party win the NY-03 House seat? | BUY | 0.92 | $500.00 |
| 08-26 12:17 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | SELL | 0.992 | $1.1k |
| 08-20 11:04 | Will the Democratic Party win the CA-48 House seat? | BUY | 0.8934377088 | $490.13 |
| 08-20 11:02 | Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-09 House seat? | BUY | 0.9110663662 | $500.00 |