Gamble.and.bankurpt
0x9fd4ca44be6bf74afc5987aa5b4305f5f748325c
- Realised P&L
- $-25.0k
- Volume
- $1.56M
- Markets traded
- 550
- Open portfolio
- $32.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded550
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.3kat 0.745Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m and 480m by January 31?
- +$2.1kat 0.013Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?
- +$1.4kat 0.836Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$969.36at 0.024Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + D66?
- +$814.98at 0.580Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 17:54 | Will the Republican Party win the TX-10 House seat? | BUY | 0.9299999888 | $5.00 |
| 11-01 17:53 | Will the Republican Party win the TX-10 House seat? | BUY | 0.9301468695 | $550.00 |
| 11-01 17:50 | Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | BUY | 0.8309838235 | $200.00 |
| 10-28 18:27 | Will the Republican Party win the TN-05 House seat? | BUY | 0.9199999994 | $64.00 |
| 10-28 18:27 | Will the Republican Party win the AZ-05 House seat? | SELL | 0.84 | $63.82 |
| 10-28 18:27 | Will the Republican Party win the TN-05 House seat? | BUY | 0.9041599977 | $415.00 |
| 10-28 18:26 | Will the Republican Party win the AZ-05 House seat? | SELL | 0.85 | $85.85 |
| 10-28 18:25 | Will the Republican Party win the AZ-05 House seat? | SELL | 0.85 | $29.75 |
| 10-28 18:25 | Will the Republican Party win the AZ-05 House seat? | SELL | 0.85 | $29.75 |
| 10-28 18:25 | Will the Republican Party win the AZ-05 House seat? | SELL | 0.85 | $29.75 |
| 10-28 18:25 | Will the Republican Party win the AZ-05 House seat? | SELL | 0.8530375572 | $240.53 |
| 10-28 18:20 | Will the Republican Party win the WI-06 House seat? | BUY | 0.9243542237 | $474.00 |
| 10-28 18:18 | Will the Democratic Party win the NY-03 House seat? | SELL | 0.8702206194 | $472.94 |
| 10-27 18:50 | Will the Republican Party win the AZ-05 House seat? | BUY | 0.9025519074 | $509.00 |
| 10-27 18:48 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.68 | $506.06 |