Cbmoynes
0x9fc6980e2eca0d7b2ea86e8b23e2e33ebcb11a3e
- Realised P&L
- $-43.14
- Volume
- $8.2k
- Markets traded
- 51
- Open portfolio
- $40.61
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded51
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample42 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)31.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Edmonton Oilers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.085 | $24.29 | +$4.29 |
| Will the Toronto Maple Leafs be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? · Yes | 0.034 | 0.032 | $16.32 | −$1.44 |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 6? · Yes | 0.377 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 37°C on July 1? · Yes | 0.207 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.96 |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 35°C on June 30? · Yes | 0.225 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 5? · Yes | 0.501 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 6? · Yes | 0.296 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$114.97at 0.179Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 18?
- +$95.42at 0.560Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on February 23?
- +$66.85at 0.130Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on February 13?
- +$54.17at 0.480Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 15?
- +$23.33at 0.300Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 3?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-01 19:00 | Will the Toronto Maple Leafs be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? | BUY | 0.0343391674 | $15.19 |
| 07-01 18:59 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.06 | $18.86 |
| 06-30 01:52 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.0899999966 | $23.00 |
| 06-30 01:47 | Will the Edmonton Oilers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? | BUY | 0.0699999969 | $20.00 |
| 06-30 01:44 | Will the Toronto Maple Leafs be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? | BUY | 0.034 | $2.58 |
| 06-30 01:42 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 37°C on July 1? | BUY | 0.2069711123 | $11.97 |
| 06-30 01:40 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 35°C on June 30? | BUY | 0.224780152 | $50.00 |
| 06-30 01:36 | Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0029999994 | $5.00 |
| 03-06 12:38 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 6? | BUY | 0.3771524849 | $10.00 |
| 03-06 12:38 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 6? | BUY | 0.2957267485 | $20.00 |
| 03-05 02:27 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 5? | BUY | 0.5008642287 | $20.00 |
| 03-03 09:45 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or higher on March 4? | BUY | 0.653122612 | $20.00 |
| 03-03 09:45 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 3? | BUY | 0.299999982 | $10.00 |
| 03-01 14:26 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 1? | BUY | 0.3609755958 | $10.00 |
| 02-27 17:44 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on February 28? | BUY | 0.2205705981 | $20.00 |