santiago2403
0x9f6badb65441cd7b2fa86d93431006c1a366ad5d
- Realised P&L
- $7.84
- Volume
- $133.94
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $12.93
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration86.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on October 11? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.445 | $3.18 | +$1.32 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on October 12? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.255 | $2.20 | +$0.13 |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on October 12? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.275 | $2.12 | +$0.35 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on October 11? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.430 | $1.72 | +$0.72 |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on October 12? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.165 | $1.65 | −$0.35 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on October 11? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.265 | $1.53 | +$0.55 |
| Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.105 | $0.53 | −$1.69 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.97at 0.280Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on October 3?
- +$1.30at 0.730Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the October meeting?
- +$-0.23at 0.462Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on October 11?
- +$-2.68at 0.187Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on October 9?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 16:01 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on October 11? | SELL | 0.4361936561 | $2.61 |
| 10-11 12:56 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on October 12? | BUY | 0.2299999753 | $1.77 |
| 10-10 20:45 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on October 12? | BUY | 0.24 | $2.07 |
| 10-10 20:21 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on October 11? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 19:58 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on October 11? | BUY | 0.1699999983 | $2.00 |
| 10-10 18:59 | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on October 11? | SELL | 0.44 | $2.93 |
| 10-10 18:50 | Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on October 11? | BUY | 0.2599999692 | $1.86 |
| 10-10 18:49 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on October 12? | BUY | 0.2 | $2.00 |
| 10-10 17:17 | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on October 11? | BUY | 0.4499999775 | $3.00 |
| 10-09 13:19 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on October 9? | SELL | 0.07 | $1.56 |
| 10-08 03:28 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on October 9? | BUY | 0.1799999856 | $2.00 |
| 10-08 03:26 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on October 9? | BUY | 0.1799999856 | $2.00 |
| 10-07 12:58 | Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15? | BUY | 0.4399999604 | $2.22 |
| 10-05 17:26 | Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the October meeting? | BUY | 0.719999917 | $3.47 |
| 10-02 19:36 | Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on October 3? | BUY | 0.2699999774 | $2.99 |