adammit
0x9f6396d07a1d8eac31d3091ddc4fc69a54fb680e
- Realised P&L
- $-299.33
- Volume
- $50.1k
- Markets traded
- 61
- Open portfolio
- $350.28
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded61
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration68.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat? · Yes | 0.638 | 0.525 | $241.41 | −$51.89 |
| Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.289 | 0.285 | $108.58 | −$1.54 |
| Senate control favorite on November 2? · Republican Party | 0.030 | 0.005 | $0.28 | −$1.25 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$329.77at 0.761Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?
- +$286.00at 0.491Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 20?
- +$113.12at 0.435Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?
- +$87.66at 0.592Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?
- +$78.74at 0.051Another Canada election called in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-25 20:50 | Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.023 | $3.13 |
| 10-25 20:33 | Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.14 | $2.24 |
| 10-25 20:13 | Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat? | SELL | 0.6 | $30.00 |
| 10-25 18:14 | Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | SELL | 0.357 | $34.98 |
| 10-25 04:29 | Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat? | BUY | 0.59 | $59.33 |
| 10-23 13:01 | Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.27 | $4.86 |
| 10-23 04:53 | Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat? | BUY | 0.63 | $6.30 |
| 10-23 04:52 | Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat? | BUY | 0.63 | $6.30 |
| 10-23 04:31 | Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat? | BUY | 0.63 | $3.15 |
| 10-23 03:33 | Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat? | BUY | 0.63 | $31.94 |
| 10-22 22:57 | Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.32 | $3.20 |
| 10-22 18:42 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.777 | $93.24 |
| 10-22 16:32 | Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat? | BUY | 0.67 | $33.50 |
| 10-21 20:39 | Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | BUY | 0.383 | $22.98 |
| 10-21 00:16 | Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | BUY | 0.3949999953 | $15.00 |