0x9f4c5efef1a9cf18505a58f9b01b4cc59def14dd
- Realised P&L
- $322.87
- Volume
- $73.8k
- Markets traded
- 68
- Open portfolio
- $609.70
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded68
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)16.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.042 | $243.68 | +$143.69 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · No | 0.219 | 0.195 | $177.67 | −$22.32 |
| Iran coup attempt by December 31? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.110 | $106.07 | −$28.93 |
| Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.056 | 0.059 | $51.87 | +$1.87 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.055 | $30.40 | −$69.10 |
| Boxing: Anthony Joshua vs. Kristian Prenga · Prenga | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.7kat 0.082QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?
- +$1.1kat 0.045Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
- +$587.11at 0.145Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?
- +$334.78at 0.230Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Score in First Half
- +$334.62at 0.130Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Morocco?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-26 15:17 | Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0563924827 | $50.00 |
| 07-25 15:48 | Boxing: Anthony Joshua vs. Kristian Prenga | BUY | 0.0899999992 | $100.00 |
| 07-25 15:42 | Iran coup attempt by December 31? | BUY | 0.1399999991 | $135.00 |
| 07-25 15:37 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.2189397909 | $200.00 |
| 07-25 15:36 | Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0170301961 | $100.00 |
| 07-15 17:12 | England vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score in Second Half | BUY | 0.25 | $100.00 |
| 07-15 17:12 | England vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score in First Half | BUY | 0.1899999986 | $100.00 |
| 07-11 17:37 | UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) | SELL | 0.28 | $84.85 |
| 07-11 15:37 | Norway vs. England: Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | BUY | 0.2699999973 | $55.00 |
| 07-11 15:36 | Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Score in Second Half | BUY | 0.32 | $100.00 |
| 07-11 15:36 | Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Score in First Half | BUY | 0.2299999986 | $100.00 |
| 07-11 15:36 | Norway vs. England: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.3474999979 | $100.00 |
| 07-11 15:33 | Will Conor McGregor win by KO or TKO? | BUY | 0.25 | $100.00 |
| 07-10 18:45 | UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.3299999978 | $100.00 |
| 07-10 18:44 | Will the fight be won by submission? | BUY | 0.1078431363 | $100.00 |