0x9f0eb3c6bdb333710ea53bd9f9e52ee033f11696
- Realised P&L
- $59.18
- Volume
- $43.3k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $39.92
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026? · Yes | 0.344 | 0.275 | $39.92 | −$10.08 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.662 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$849.20 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · No | 0.549 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$167.00 |
| Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 135m? · Yes | 0.028 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.00 |
| Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 2, 2026? · No | 0.609 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$105.15 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$319.64at 0.570Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?
- +$264.26at 0.169Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$225.38at 0.524US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
- +$160.13at 0.649Israel closes its airspace by June 9?
- +$117.53at 0.699US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-26 13:48 | Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026? | BUY | 0.3444149631 | $50.00 |
| 07-17 20:55 | Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 135m? | BUY | 0.028 | $14.00 |
| 07-14 18:26 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.372 | $484.26 |
| 06-28 20:38 | Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.6094928124 | $105.15 |
| 06-28 20:20 | Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? | SELL | 0.9048293199 | $136.77 |
| 06-21 09:08 | Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.4299999982 | $65.00 |
| 06-19 10:10 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | SELL | 0.2556877031 | $67.66 |
| 06-16 13:44 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | BUY | 0.6801986496 | $180.00 |
| 06-16 12:34 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.14 | $184.21 |
| 06-15 20:29 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1689999995 | $220.00 |
| 06-15 20:29 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1519999994 | $200.00 |
| 06-15 07:26 | US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.9801011941 | $484.27 |
| 06-14 21:21 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.5489809336 | $167.00 |
| 06-14 20:48 | US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.523966606 | $258.89 |
| 06-10 21:08 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? | BUY | 0.5695919939 | $423.00 |