Istaroth
0x9efda3d6354152901fc4706c3b1a9ce50b45ad00
- Realised P&L
- $-721.8k
- Volume
- $30.98M
- Markets traded
- 402
- Open portfolio
- $120.94
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded402
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$252.5kat 0.681No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
- +$142.8kat 0.987Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
- +$28.3kat 0.955US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
- +$18.9kat 0.999US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$17.7kat 0.906Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 08:09 | Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.806 | $16.12 |
| 10-14 08:07 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Tennessee be between 2,000,000 and 2,200,000? | SELL | 0.37 | $2.58 |
| 10-14 08:06 | Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.806 | $16.12 |
| 10-14 08:05 | Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.995 | $49.95 |
| 10-14 08:02 | Will Yandy Díaz lead the 2026 MLB Postseason in runs scored? | SELL | 0.06 | $1.20 |
| 10-14 07:59 | Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above? | SELL | 0.2 | $6.00 |
| 10-14 07:58 | Will Toy Story 5 win Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.94 | $6.79 |
| 10-14 07:57 | Will Parker Washington have 749.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? | SELL | 0.26 | $2.36 |
| 10-14 07:51 | Will George Kittle have 7.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? | SELL | 0.12 | $1.69 |
| 10-14 07:45 | Romanian PM Bolojan out by October 31? | BUY | 0.7378172895 | $45.60 |
| 10-14 07:44 | Union Pacific (UNP) Q3 adjusted operating ratio 60% to 61%? | SELL | 0.07 | $1.40 |
| 10-14 07:44 | Will Ethereum hit $4k by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.25 | $3.58 |
| 10-14 07:42 | Will Jaylen Waddle have 9.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? | BUY | 0.0849999976 | $1.61 |
| 10-14 07:36 | Will the Bank of Russia announce a 25 bps decrease at the December 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.62 | $12.40 |
| 10-14 07:26 | Will Labor hold the most seats in the New South Wales Legislative Council after the next New South Wales state election? | BUY | 0.72 | $10.89 |