0x9ec533d37201117524626cdcd01e6a872ad6f3bb
- Realised P&L
- $1.88
- Volume
- $415.00
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $116.08
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration94.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.667 | 0.895 | $64.44 | +$16.43 |
| Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.839 | 0.935 | $21.50 | +$2.21 |
| Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · No | 0.760 | 0.925 | $7.40 | +$1.32 |
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.830 | 0.915 | $6.41 | +$0.59 |
| U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? · No | 0.910 | 0.958 | $5.75 | +$0.28 |
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.178 | 0.085 | $5.01 | −$5.50 |
| Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.347 | 0.105 | $3.04 | −$7.01 |
| Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? · Yes | 0.063 | 0.079 | $1.58 | +$0.32 |
| U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.043 | $0.55 | −$0.88 |
| Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.065 | $0.39 | −$0.63 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.14at 0.080Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.07at 0.900Modi out by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.06at 0.950Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
- +$0.00at 0.500Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.00at 0.500Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-11 05:04 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.93 | $4.65 |
| 06-21 05:15 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.83 | $5.81 |
| 06-19 01:36 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.19 | $3.04 |
| 06-16 19:08 | Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? | BUY | 0.063 | $1.26 |
| 06-13 12:26 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.91 | $5.46 |
| 06-06 03:05 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.11 | $1.43 |
| 06-03 03:56 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.44 |
| 05-24 20:06 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.1552 | $3.88 |
| 05-20 15:51 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.85 | $4.25 |
| 05-20 15:51 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.83 | $9.96 |
| 05-20 15:50 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.17 | $1.02 |
| 05-20 15:50 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.76 | $6.08 |
| 04-25 08:12 | Modi out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $5.40 |
| 04-23 07:54 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.78 | $8.58 |
| 04-15 21:48 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | SELL | 0.2 | $7.60 |