AMike
0x9e9fb94f518d488787df47787181a01daec81d38
- Realised P&L
- $-1.6k
- Volume
- $840.2k
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $14.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)81.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration97.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? · No | 0.924 | 0.935 | $13.7k | +$152.91 |
| Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement? · Yes | 0.854 | 0.667 | $381.47 | −$106.42 |
| Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.880 | $14.29 | +$8.12 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.8k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.1kat 0.862Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
- +$3.5kat 0.447US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?
- +$3.5kat 0.934Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- +$2.0kat 0.180Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- +$1.7kat 0.833Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 14:48 | Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement? | BUY | 0.666 | $36.63 |
| 09-11 19:46 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | BUY | 0.92 | $4.0k |
| 09-10 01:07 | Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement? | BUY | 0.842 | $9.52 |
| 09-10 01:05 | Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement? | BUY | 0.841 | $21.88 |
| 09-10 01:05 | Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement? | BUY | 0.839 | $37.06 |
| 09-10 01:05 | Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement? | BUY | 0.84 | $29.40 |
| 09-09 18:22 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.2 | $49.00 |
| 09-09 17:40 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.2 | $400.00 |
| 09-09 17:39 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.2 | $500.00 |
| 09-09 17:13 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.42 | $840.00 |
| 09-09 16:39 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.42 | $176.40 |
| 09-09 16:13 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.41 | $157.85 |
| 09-09 16:13 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.41 | $9.84 |
| 09-09 16:12 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.42 | $377.58 |
| 09-09 16:12 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.41 | $349.32 |