nathanaisocrates
0x9e78797c409a28a6846f7ef5ec2769cd8ca3a38c
- Realised P&L
- $310.44
- Volume
- $13.5k
- Markets traded
- 46
- Open portfolio
- $119.99
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded46
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample43 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the CA-44 House seat? · No | 0.984 | 0.985 | $59.07 | +$0.03 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the TX-01 House seat? · No | 0.973 | 0.977 | $46.91 | +$0.17 |
| Will the Republican Party win the IL-06 House seat? · No | 0.975 | 0.976 | $14.01 | +$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$700.20at 0.400Blue Jays vs. Pirates
- +$539.84at 0.440Phillies vs. Reds
- +$487.86at 0.530Marlins vs. Nationals
- +$431.76at 0.580Marlins vs. Guardians
- +$358.28at 0.740Ethereum Up or Down on May 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-02 07:05 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-12-02? | BUY | 0.45 | $423.00 |
| 09-01 11:05 | Marlins vs. Nationals | BUY | 0.53 | $15.90 |
| 08-27 07:32 | Phillies vs. Mets | BUY | 0.42 | $427.98 |
| 08-20 12:25 | Blue Jays vs. Pirates | BUY | 0.4 | $466.80 |
| 08-12 05:17 | Marlins vs. Guardians | BUY | 0.58 | $596.24 |
| 08-05 13:11 | Giants vs. Pirates | BUY | 0.42 | $201.18 |
| 07-31 10:34 | IEM Cologne: The MongolZ vs. Natus Vincere | BUY | 0.43 | $65.79 |
| 05-15 08:49 | Ethereum Up or Down on May 15? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.0k |