MichaelBlack28
0x9e0c569b2746b09b0d37089572a3155c342d6558
- Realised P&L
- $3.78
- Volume
- $686.94
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $17.48
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration54.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)16.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? · No | 0.920 | 0.935 | $4.67 | +$0.07 |
| SSI announces it has achieved SSI by December 31? · No | 0.860 | 0.875 | $4.38 | +$0.07 |
| Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.675 | $3.38 | −$0.07 |
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.360 | 0.365 | $1.82 | +$0.03 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in September? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.340 | $1.70 | −$0.10 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.305 | $1.52 | +$0.38 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.16at 0.304Ethereum Up or Down - September 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET
- +$1.82at 0.532Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-3.5)
- +$-0.01at 0.001BNB Up or Down - August 24, 1PM ET
- +$-0.01at 0.005Will Porto win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
- +$-0.01at 0.007Will Borussia Dortmund win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 22:46 | SSI announces it has achieved SSI by December 31? | BUY | 0.86 | $4.30 |
| 09-15 21:16 | Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? | BUY | 0.69 | $3.45 |
| 09-15 11:53 | Ethereum Up or Down - September 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET | SELL | 0.75 | $3.75 |
| 09-15 11:49 | Ethereum Up or Down - September 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET | BUY | 0.29 | $1.45 |
| 09-13 17:11 | Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.36 | $1.80 |
| 09-13 13:30 | Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | SELL | 0.22 | $1.10 |
| 09-13 13:30 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in September? | SELL | 0.21 | $1.05 |
| 09-13 06:57 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? | BUY | 0.23 | $1.15 |
| 09-11 15:15 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.33 | $1.65 |
| 09-11 12:36 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.36 | $1.80 |
| 09-10 21:57 | Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.23 | $1.15 |
| 09-10 21:17 | Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? | BUY | 0.92 | $4.60 |
| 09-10 14:51 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.25 | $1.25 |
| 09-10 14:49 | Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in September? | BUY | 0.36 | $1.80 |
| 09-10 14:49 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.28 | $1.40 |