dfefr3423
0x9df6687f17febc5e5b63180f9f3458e85dc210ba
- Realised P&L
- $4.8k
- Volume
- $8.7k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $0.03
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar55.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration61.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on October 8? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.001 | $0.03 | −$13.82 |
| Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on May 8? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$33.50 |
| Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on May 14? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5 · Over | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.70 |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on October 1? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.16 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.0kat 0.500Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5
- +$1.8kat 0.500Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5
- +$32.90at 0.500Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on May 8?
- +$29.64at 0.500Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on May 14?
- +$13.57at 0.500Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on October 8?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 15:28 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on September 29? | BUY | 0.994 | $5.49 |
| 08-31 15:14 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C or below on September 2? | BUY | 0.998 | $5.33 |
| 07-07 01:43 | Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) | SELL | 0.994 | $4.97 |
| 07-07 01:43 | Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) | BUY | 0.997 | $7.48 |
| 07-03 02:43 | Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $360 on July 6? | BUY | 0.9500319375 | $26.77 |
| 06-25 01:06 | Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C or below on June 26? | BUY | 0.985 | $22.05 |
| 06-18 02:00 | Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 19? | BUY | 0.987014553 | $9.50 |
| 06-09 00:57 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 10? | BUY | 0.9880085106 | $23.22 |
| 06-03 01:18 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 4? | BUY | 0.984 | $9.84 |
| 05-30 05:24 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 31? | BUY | 0.932 | $5.69 |
| 05-20 11:55 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on May 21? | BUY | 0.968 | $24.20 |
| 02-20 13:01 | Will there be at least 1,050 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.951967426 | $876.74 |
| 02-20 12:51 | EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.54 | $118.80 |
| 01-08 18:06 | EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.82 | $180.40 |