PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

dfefr3423

0x9df6687f17febc5e5b63180f9f3458e85dc210ba

Realised P&L
$4.8k
Volume
$8.7k
Markets traded
18
Open portfolio
$0.03

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar55.1%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
BlockerMarkets traded18
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration61.5% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample19 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)84.2%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on October 8? · Yes0.5000.001$0.03−$13.82
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on May 8? · Yes0.5000.000$0.00−$33.50
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on May 14? · Yes0.5000.000$0.00−$30.00
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5 · Over0.5000.000$0.00−$10.70
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on October 1? · Yes0.5000.000$0.00−$10.16

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-28 15:28Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on September 29?BUY0.994$5.49
08-31 15:14Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C or below on September 2?BUY0.998$5.33
07-07 01:43Spread: Switzerland (-3.5)SELL0.994$4.97
07-07 01:43Spread: Switzerland (-3.5)BUY0.997$7.48
07-03 02:43Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $360 on July 6?BUY0.9500319375$26.77
06-25 01:06Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C or below on June 26?BUY0.985$22.05
06-18 02:00Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 19?BUY0.987014553$9.50
06-09 00:57Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 10?BUY0.9880085106$23.22
06-03 01:18Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 4?BUY0.984$9.84
05-30 05:24Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 31?BUY0.932$5.69
05-20 11:55Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on May 21?BUY0.968$24.20
02-20 13:01Will there be at least 1,050 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?BUY0.951967426$876.74
02-20 12:51EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?SELL0.54$118.80
01-08 18:06EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?BUY0.82$180.40