CakeBake
0x9d8019321990b0e9d3947c74e7832f855b2afcaf
- Realised P&L
- $-21.5k
- Volume
- $3.31M
- Markets traded
- 780
- Open portfolio
- $43.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded780
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration46.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$22.8kat 0.165Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 3?
- +$14.2kat 0.485Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 56 million views on day 4?
- +$4.7kat 0.185Will MrBeast's next video get between 55.5 and 56 million views on day 6?
- +$4.6kat 0.831Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 20 and 22 million views on week 1?
- +$3.2kat 0.752Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 45 and 50 million views in week 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 06:37 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.978 | $836.19 |
| 10-06 03:49 | Will MrBeast's next video get 125 million or more views on day 3? | BUY | 0.999 | $84.88 |
| 10-06 03:49 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 122 and 125 million views on day 3? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.1k |
| 10-06 03:48 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $149.55 |
| 10-06 03:48 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $104.69 |
| 10-06 03:47 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.9968255016 | $3.0k |
| 10-05 17:44 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 120 and 130 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.3k |
| 10-05 14:04 | Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.1k |
| 10-05 13:38 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 96 and 100 million views on day 2? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.4k |
| 10-05 04:42 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 96 and 100 million views on day 2? | SELL | 0.05 | $5.00 |
| 10-05 03:46 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 96 and 100 million views on day 2? | BUY | 0.23 | $23.00 |
| 10-05 03:04 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 92 and 96 million views on day 2? | BUY | 0.9969960159 | $2.5k |
| 10-05 03:03 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.0k |
| 10-05 03:00 | Will MrBeast's next video get at least 100 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.4k |
| 10-05 03:00 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.9989509527 | $407.34 |