moonbagio
0x9d596f28de3f74b71d9620b893779faf68333210
- Realised P&L
- $27.12
- Volume
- $21.7k
- Markets traded
- 121
- Open portfolio
- $29.01
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded121
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration52.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)24.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration78.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATO article 5 before 2027? · Yes | 0.077 | 0.053 | $22.64 | −$10.08 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? · No | 0.155 | 0.075 | $6.38 | −$6.80 |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.00 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? · Yes | 0.065 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.052 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$68.84at 0.028NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?
- +$22.63at 0.184Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?
- +$22.44at 0.238Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?
- +$21.94at 0.140Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- +$18.07at 0.295US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 21:14 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | SELL | 0.08 | $1.20 |
| 09-16 21:12 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | SELL | 0.09 | $9.00 |
| 09-03 00:56 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.15 | $15.00 |
| 08-30 19:47 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.16 | $6.00 |
| 08-30 19:46 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.16 | $10.00 |
| 08-29 14:04 | NATO article 5 before 2027? | BUY | 0.0875805315 | $19.00 |
| 08-29 14:04 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15? | SELL | 0.12 | $19.71 |
| 08-29 03:13 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15? | BUY | 0.1399999872 | $9.00 |
| 08-29 03:12 | NATO article 5 before 2027? | SELL | 0.06 | $9.00 |
| 08-28 00:43 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15? | BUY | 0.12 | $12.00 |
| 08-28 00:40 | NATO article 5 before 2027? | SELL | 0.0604995 | $12.10 |
| 08-25 20:26 | NATO article 5 before 2027? | BUY | 0.0694936799 | $7.00 |
| 08-25 20:25 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15? | SELL | 0.1217274141 | $7.05 |
| 08-25 00:38 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15? | BUY | 0.1899999888 | $11.00 |
| 08-20 20:33 | NATO article 5 before 2027? | BUY | 0.0673779147 | $10.00 |