ScarletYarn1
0x9d4069a67705fe4bcff95139907c1be08da5169d
- Realised P&L
- $-10.93
- Volume
- $151.95
- Markets traded
- 4
- Open portfolio
- $84.07
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded4
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- Not knownSettled sample0 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- CautionOpen concentration61.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? · No | 0.960 | 1.000 | $52.08 | +$2.08 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No | 0.860 | 0.967 | $22.49 | +$2.49 |
| SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? · Yes | 0.642 | 0.305 | $9.50 | −$10.50 |
| Will Russia capture Zaliznychne by February 28? · No | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-21 14:44 | Will Russia capture Zaliznychne by February 28? | BUY | 0.1099999815 | $5.00 |
| 01-08 06:11 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | BUY | 0.8599999991 | $20.00 |
| 01-07 13:18 | SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? | BUY | 0.6419753003 | $20.00 |
| 01-05 13:32 | Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $50.00 |