0x9d1bcfbfab1e2994fe11ff8c8bd7ff81627d54bb
- Realised P&L
- $12.48
- Volume
- $398.55
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $17.65
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.338 | 0.670 | $11.88 | +$5.88 |
| Will $ANSEM reach $1.5 before 2027? · No | 0.978 | 0.952 | $2.92 | −$0.08 |
| Will $ANSEM reach $2 before 2027? · No | 0.973 | 0.957 | $1.48 | −$0.02 |
| Will $ANSEM dip to $0.08 before 2027? · Yes | 0.810 | 0.743 | $1.38 | −$0.12 |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.016 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? · No | 0.880 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.40at 0.500San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5
- +$-0.08at 0.945MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 30-July 6?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-04 19:35 | Will $ANSEM reach $1.5 before 2027? | BUY | 0.9789997742 | $1.50 |
| 07-04 16:08 | Will $ANSEM dip to $0.08 before 2027? | BUY | 0.8099999622 | $1.50 |
| 07-04 14:33 | Will $ANSEM reach $1.5 before 2027? | BUY | 0.9769999948 | $1.50 |
| 07-04 14:33 | Will $ANSEM reach $2 before 2027? | BUY | 0.9729999896 | $1.50 |
| 07-03 21:02 | MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 30-July 6? | SELL | 0.92 | $2.92 |
| 07-03 19:11 | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | BUY | 0.8799999531 | $1.50 |
| 07-03 18:15 | Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $1.50 |
| 07-03 11:06 | MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 30-July 6? | BUY | 0.9399999875 | $1.50 |
| 07-03 08:12 | MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 30-July 6? | BUY | 0.95 | $1.50 |
| 07-03 01:00 | Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3499998717 | $1.50 |
| 07-02 16:11 | Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.359999904 | $1.50 |
| 07-01 10:09 | Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3499998717 | $1.50 |
| 06-08 15:36 | Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.016 | $1.50 |
| 06-08 12:54 | Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.016 | $1.50 |
| 06-08 10:34 | Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.02 | $1.50 |