marsian11
0x9d0a504894c2bd9429f9585bdd434f44a9d343f9
- Realised P&L
- $-61.51
- Volume
- $972.78
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $7.46
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration42.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration80.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.460 | $6.02 | −$2.48 |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.025 | $0.82 | −$2.07 |
| Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.135 | $0.58 | −$2.42 |
| Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.009 | $0.04 | −$0.46 |
| Will Figure's F.03 robots run for at least 200 hours without failure? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.80 |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? · Yes | 0.900 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$24.00 |
| Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.00at 0.600Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
- +$3.62at 0.736Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23?
- +$1.08at 0.903Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18?
- +$0.49at 0.670Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
- +$0.23at 0.810Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-01?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-02 12:33 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | BUY | 0.089999972 | $2.89 |
| 09-02 12:31 | Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.6 | $3.05 |
| 08-28 15:58 | Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6499999862 | $11.80 |
| 07-12 08:44 | Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.2699999896 | $15.00 |
| 07-12 08:43 | Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.38 | $16.45 |
| 05-31 23:44 | Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5758377013 | $24.93 |
| 05-31 23:44 | Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | SELL | 0.94 | $10.10 |
| 05-25 06:33 | Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | BUY | 0.9 | $10.00 |
| 05-25 06:33 | Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | BUY | 0.9299999953 | $10.00 |
| 05-22 20:58 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? | BUY | 0.7299999876 | $10.00 |
| 05-16 18:58 | Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.6999999767 | $3.00 |
| 05-16 18:57 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? | BUY | 0.5699998233 | $1.00 |
| 05-16 18:56 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? | BUY | 0.9 | $10.00 |
| 12-02 11:23 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 12-02 11:23 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.63 | $4.72 |