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0x9cfdf189e6b560e138ee7dfebd0ee8b803f3eb36
- Realised P&L
- $3.6k
- Volume
- $134.5k
- Markets traded
- 52
- Open portfolio
- $1.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded52
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration87.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Day and Night" - Carly Rae Jepsen first week album sales be less than 30k? · Yes | 0.339 | 0.580 | $1.3k | +$520.03 |
| Will Taylor Swift release "Taylor Swift (Taylor's Version)" in 2026? · Yes | 0.534 | 0.445 | $175.17 | −$35.05 |
| Games Total: O/U 2.5 · Under | 0.782 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$21.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.7kat 0.209Will "I'm The Problem - Morgan Wallen" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of August 8?
- +$1.2kat 0.870Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June?
- +$840.67at 0.730Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?
- +$722.26at 0.707LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner
- +$593.58at 0.633Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-27 18:29 | Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner | SELL | 0.378608 | $1.1k |
| 08-27 17:45 | Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner | BUY | 0.85 | $2.5k |
| 08-27 17:21 | Games Total: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.7821782175 | $21.00 |
| 08-22 14:25 | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? | BUY | 0.7197224086 | $2.5k |
| 08-20 17:51 | Will Taylor Swift release "Taylor Swift (Taylor's Version)" in 2026? | BUY | 0.5340279436 | $210.22 |
| 08-15 17:17 | LoL: G2 Esports vs Shifters - Game 1 Winner | SELL | 0.7052721351 | $2.1k |
| 08-15 17:07 | LoL: SK Gaming vs Fnatic - Game 1 Winner | SELL | 0.999 | $1.0k |
| 08-15 17:05 | LoL: G2 Esports vs Shifters - Game 1 Winner | BUY | 0.89 | $275.26 |
| 08-15 15:23 | LoL: SK Gaming vs Fnatic - Game 1 Winner | SELL | 0.19 | $203.49 |
| 08-15 15:04 | LoL: SK Gaming vs Fnatic - Game 1 Winner | BUY | 0.5083198275 | $544.48 |
| 08-15 14:59 | Will "Lost Weekend" - Phoebe Bridgers first week album sales be between 75k and 90k? | BUY | 0.15 | $6.00 |
| 08-11 02:28 | Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17? | SELL | 0.82 | $3.0k |
| 08-10 16:01 | Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17? | BUY | 0.88 | $1.1k |
| 08-10 15:25 | LoL: SK Gaming vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner | SELL | 0.44 | $221.76 |
| 08-10 15:23 | LoL: SK Gaming vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner | BUY | 0.588400064 | $147.11 |