adadq
0x9c9bf6bb49373078271c929f207f8e06468e80dc
- Realised P&L
- $-27.09
- Volume
- $55.7k
- Markets traded
- 114
- Open portfolio
- $26.68
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded114
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration53.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)8.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.645 | $12.90 | −$0.10 |
| Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.125 | $12.50 | −$9.50 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.025 | $1.27 | −$8.72 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.00 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.111 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.10 |
| Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? · No | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$24.50 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.087 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.70 |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.086 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.60 |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? · Yes | 0.890 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.80 |
| Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 41.5 on November 14 2025? · No | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$84.00at 0.160Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$74.00at 0.630US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
- +$55.61at 0.055Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?
- +$30.00at 0.500Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 41.5 on November 14 2025?
- +$25.00at 0.500Bitcoin up in Q1 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-27 15:38 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.65 | $13.00 |
| 08-25 15:34 | Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.22 | $22.00 |
| 08-25 15:32 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SELL | 0.072 | $7.20 |
| 06-11 13:21 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? | SELL | 0.35964 | $7.19 |
| 06-11 12:31 | Will Douglas Lumsden win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? | SELL | 0.7 | $14.00 |
| 06-11 12:29 | Will Loyiso Masuku be the next mayor of Johannesburg? | SELL | 0.39 | $7.80 |
| 06-11 12:27 | Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? | SELL | 0.21 | $4.20 |
| 06-11 12:26 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? | SELL | 0.5375 | $10.75 |
| 06-11 12:26 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? | SELL | 0.56 | $11.20 |
| 06-11 12:26 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? | SELL | 0.64 | $12.80 |
| 06-11 12:26 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? | SELL | 0.69 | $13.80 |
| 06-11 11:47 | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.815 | $16.30 |
| 06-11 11:36 | Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 5–10%? | SELL | 0.04 | $0.51 |
| 06-11 11:36 | Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? | SELL | 0.26852 | $5.37 |
| 06-11 11:14 | Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150? | SELL | 0.68 | $2.95 |