0x9c8236b53330ca63a3637934cb271b75c54b87f9
0x9c8236b53330ca63a3637934cb271b75c54b87f9
- Realised P&L
- $16.47
- Volume
- $494.18
- Markets traded
- 155
- Open portfolio
- $6.00
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded155
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration5.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 9? · Up | 0.730 | 1.000 | $1.37 | +$0.37 |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September? · No | 0.630 | 0.625 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.225 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · No | 0.690 | 0.670 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.510 | $0.91 | −$0.09 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.605 | $0.78 | −$0.22 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.44at 0.218Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
- +$7.03at 0.227Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during September Press Conference?
- +$5.92at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
- +$5.92at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?
- +$5.86at 0.261Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 19:30 | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 11:28 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 11:28 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 03:28 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 9? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 19:27 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 10:03 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 02:01 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 14:47 | Will Corpus Christi FC win on 2026-10-07? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 15:53 | Will FC Supra Du Quebec win on 2026-10-07? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 11:43 | Will Guandong GZ-Power FC win on 2026-10-07? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 07:51 | Wingate & Finchley FC vs. Bedford Town FC: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 13:12 | Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 20:03 | Will CA Bucaramanga win on 2026-10-04? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 17:55 | Will El Salvador win on 2026-10-05? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 16:04 | Costa Rica vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |