theriddlerx
0x9c4ee437024f3d4e398af823ccf78e48bb26fbbb
- Realised P&L
- $9.11
- Volume
- $1.2k
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $11.12
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration74.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)29.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration77.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.580 | 1.000 | $8.62 | +$3.62 |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027? · Yes | 0.287 | 0.159 | $1.66 | −$1.34 |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.100 | $0.83 | −$4.17 |
| Will Canada win on 2026-07-04? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.36 |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-07-04? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.86 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$47.00at 0.096S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 26?
- +$8.11at 0.732US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$4.25at 0.526Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET
- +$3.50at 0.650Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET
- +$0.12at 0.934Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-31 16:03 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET | SELL | 0.96 | $5.16 |
| 08-31 16:02 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET | BUY | 0.9299999888 | $5.00 |
| 08-31 15:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $5.00 |
| 08-31 15:59 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5799999954 | $5.00 |
| 08-31 15:59 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.006999993 | $1.00 |
| 07-04 16:39 | Will Paraguay win on 2026-07-04? | BUY | 0.05 | $2.86 |
| 07-04 16:38 | Will Canada win on 2026-07-04? | BUY | 0.1899999734 | $5.36 |
| 04-06 01:30 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET | BUY | 0.4099999836 | $4.58 |
| 04-06 01:26 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET | BUY | 0.3099999364 | $1.80 |
| 04-06 01:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET | BUY | 0.32 | $4.51 |
| 04-06 01:23 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET | BUY | 0.17 | $0.83 |
| 04-06 01:22 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET | BUY | 0.3699999112 | $1.82 |
| 03-02 13:59 | Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.599999976 | $5.00 |
| 03-02 13:56 | Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | BUY | 0.1899999569 | $3.00 |
| 02-28 06:53 | US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9699999331 | $10.00 |