Vanchalkenstein
0x9c16127eccf031df45461ef1e04b52ea286a09cb
- Realised P&L
- $-1.13M
- Volume
- $62.95M
- Markets traded
- 750
- Open portfolio
- $16.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded750
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration94.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.715 | $15.7k | +$109.45 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · Yes | 0.176 | 0.024 | $843.01 | −$5.5k |
| Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's US Open? · Yes | 0.062 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.8k |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-20? · No | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$56.0k |
| Prague 2: Jan Kumstat vs Sumit Nagal · Sumit Nagal | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$679.99 |
| China Open: Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev · Daniil Medvedev | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.5k |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-20? · Yes | 0.488 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$84.9k |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Adolfo Vallejo vs Rafael Jodar · Rafael Jodar | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$257.40 |
| Valorant: Global Esports vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Champions Group B · EDward Gaming | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.6k |
| Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-08-18? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.6k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$379.0kat 0.368Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-15?
- +$274.9kat 0.230Lions vs. Vikings
- +$274.0kat 0.543Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-08?
- +$273.0kat 0.462Bills vs. Jaguars
- +$272.0kat 0.396Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-01-16?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 16:30 | Colts vs. Steelers: O/U 42.5 | BUY | 0.47 | $21.9k |
| 10-05 10:22 | China Open: Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev | BUY | 0.56 | $18.1k |
| 10-01 10:40 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Adolfo Vallejo vs Rafael Jodar | BUY | 0.65 | $3.25 |
| 09-20 15:30 | Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-20? | BUY | 0.49 | $434.93 |
| 09-20 11:21 | Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-20? | BUY | 0.56 | $5.7k |
| 09-20 11:21 | Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-20? | BUY | 0.56 | $10.8k |
| 09-13 09:15 | Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open? | BUY | 0.586 | $5.6k |
| 09-06 13:23 | Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's US Open? | BUY | 0.062 | $0.98 |
| 09-04 11:35 | Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s US Open? | BUY | 0.062 | $35.02 |
| 08-18 17:04 | Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-08-18? | BUY | 0.3 | $1.6k |
| 08-18 16:57 | Sion: Petr Nesterov vs Calvin Hemery | BUY | 0.5 | $25.0k |
| 08-18 09:02 | Will Thailand vs. Singapore end in a draw? | BUY | 0.78 | $860.32 |
| 08-17 19:38 | Will CA Lanús vs. CA Independiente end in a draw? | BUY | 0.68 | $72.04 |
| 08-17 17:28 | Cardiff City FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.56 | $2.4k |
| 08-17 17:26 | Cincinnati Open: Diane Parry vs Lois Boisson | BUY | 0.8 | $1.2k |