kefirsky
0x9c14434c1d6e1f9a276dcef5abb2a080b6a93371
- Realised P&L
- $-4.5k
- Volume
- $36.5k
- Markets traded
- 32
- Open portfolio
- $2.8k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-12.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded32
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration52.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.897 | 0.825 | $1.0k | −$90.25 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.910 | $728.00 | −$24.00 |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31? · No | 0.610 | 0.670 | $335.00 | +$30.00 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026? · Yes | 0.880 | 0.795 | $238.50 | −$25.50 |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2? · No | 0.959 | 0.959 | $99.74 | +$0.01 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.525 | $89.25 | −$11.05 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.735 | $77.17 | +$6.83 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 19, 2026? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.450 | $70.65 | −$6.28 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.415 | $41.50 | −$4.50 |
| Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.425 | 0.345 | $24.83 | −$5.74 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 18, 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.240 | $14.40 | −$4.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$339.54at 0.827Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
- +$130.00at 0.615Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?
- +$77.92at 0.698Will Powell say "growth" 8 or more times during January press conference?
- +$50.97at 0.928US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?
- +$29.70at 0.940US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 08:13 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2? | BUY | 0.9589038462 | $99.73 |
| 10-29 10:14 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.49 | $76.93 |
| 10-29 10:12 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $16.00 |
| 10-29 09:58 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22? | BUY | 0.46 | $46.00 |
| 10-29 09:53 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31? | BUY | 0.61 | $305.00 |
| 10-29 09:50 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | BUY | 0.59 | $100.30 |
| 10-29 09:49 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? | SELL | 0.994 | $546.70 |
| 10-26 15:53 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? | BUY | 0.67 | $70.35 |
| 10-26 15:51 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $752.00 |
| 10-26 15:40 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? | BUY | 0.94 | $517.00 |
| 10-26 15:29 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $264.00 |
| 10-26 15:29 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $1.0k |
| 10-24 08:36 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.005 | $0.27 |
| 10-24 08:36 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.0073477757 | $4.56 |
| 10-24 08:35 | US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? | SELL | 0.73 | $897.90 |