0x9c0d4e6c302372e0b34cae34309c2f07e2b8293f
0x9c0d4e6c302372e0b34cae34309c2f07e2b8293f
- Realised P&L
- $-29.05
- Volume
- $2.9k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $52.14
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)16.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration69.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.119 | 0.026 | $35.99 | −$125.10 |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.105 | $16.15 | −$23.84 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.93at 0.970Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
- +$-0.48at 0.414Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
- +$-0.62at 0.778Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$-1.63at 0.017Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
- +$-9.47at 0.027Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-29 17:53 | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.005 | $2.11 |
| 09-27 18:55 | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $40.00 |
| 09-26 14:10 | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1198536578 | $81.90 |
| 09-26 14:04 | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $46.79 |
| 09-25 11:23 | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0153577661 | $1.10 |
| 09-24 14:43 | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0317194268 | $1.10 |
| 09-24 14:41 | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0292404767 | $9.25 |
| 09-22 06:45 | Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.0157910488 | $1.55 |
| 09-22 06:44 | Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | SELL | 0.959 | $1.50 |
| 09-22 03:45 | Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | BUY | 0.9629999852 | $1.50 |
| 09-22 02:47 | Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | SELL | 0.034285442 | $1.44 |
| 09-21 10:19 | Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | BUY | 0.690999994 | $29.00 |
| 09-21 08:46 | Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | SELL | 0.653 | $13.81 |
| 09-21 08:41 | Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | SELL | 0.6545914894 | $4.61 |
| 09-21 08:41 | Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | SELL | 0.6555324814 | $6.16 |