0x9bd722e3a1b52615e89e2d12ebe7adcacfd19e0a
0x9bd722e3a1b52615e89e2d12ebe7adcacfd19e0a
- Realised P&L
- $39.33
- Volume
- $2.3k
- Markets traded
- 34
- Open portfolio
- $33.92
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded34
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample27 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.257 | 0.275 | $14.41 | +$0.94 |
| Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? · Yes | 0.000 | 0.615 | $12.42 | +$12.42 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 12? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.225 | $3.75 | −$3.25 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in October? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.037 | $2.73 | −$5.27 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.021 | $0.61 | −$1.39 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$21.20 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.269 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$64.06at 0.645Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
- +$14.81at 0.422Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in August?
- +$14.79at 0.223Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?
- +$13.03at 0.548Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?
- +$11.57at 0.317Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-07 18:12 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 12? | BUY | 0.4199999916 | $7.00 |
| 10-06 21:05 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in October? | BUY | 0.1099999971 | $3.00 |
| 10-06 21:05 | Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October? | BUY | 0.069999999 | $2.00 |
| 10-06 21:05 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in October? | BUY | 0.1099999987 | $5.00 |
| 09-14 21:05 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.1299999948 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 21:05 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.1299999948 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 21:04 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.1299999948 | $2.00 |
| 09-13 13:57 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1399999963 | $3.00 |
| 09-10 10:01 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4699999944 | $10.00 |
| 09-10 10:00 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.20 |
| 09-10 10:00 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999693 | $1.20 |
| 09-09 11:39 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999983 | $12.27 |
| 09-05 07:21 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.229999916 | $2.00 |
| 09-04 19:07 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2199999164 | $2.00 |
| 09-04 19:07 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2199998548 | $1.00 |