0x9BC88B35704EA529fcDF32f3147c32fDF9fc6F1C-1741934422583
0x9bc88b35704ea529fcdf32f3147c32fdf9fc6f1c
- Realised P&L
- $-18.87
- Volume
- $5.1k
- Markets traded
- 80
- Open portfolio
- $4.83
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded80
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration6.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 15% to 17.5%? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.260 | $4.83 | +$0.37 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 7? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.40 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 26? · No | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.20 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.08at 0.670Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?
- +$0.67at 0.977Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1300 on Apr 18?
- +$0.63at 0.979Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?
- +$0.62at 0.996Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday?
- +$0.45at 0.997Was JFK assassination an inside job?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 14:11 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.9969999998 | $11.20 |
| 10-11 14:07 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 15% to 17.5%? | BUY | 0.2399999914 | $4.46 |
| 09-06 03:50 | Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.9959999495 | $15.70 |
| 08-22 06:33 | Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.70 |
| 07-08 07:39 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.70 |
| 06-14 08:21 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? | BUY | 0.999 | $78.60 |
| 06-07 06:36 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? | BUY | 0.9989999958 | $78.59 |
| 05-29 08:38 | Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $78.50 |
| 05-24 09:48 | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $78.40 |
| 05-14 03:07 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? | BUY | 0.9989999921 | $78.30 |
| 05-11 09:11 | Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $78.30 |
| 05-08 06:49 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8? | BUY | 0.999 | $78.00 |
| 04-29 09:55 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $78.00 |
| 04-26 02:33 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on April 26? | BUY | 0.999 | $78.08 |
| 04-21 02:17 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 21? | BUY | 0.999 | $78.01 |