0x9bb189a048d6dc10fc268c79ae1348e8b2085cad
0x9bb189a048d6dc10fc268c79ae1348e8b2085cad
- Realised P&L
- $-30.84
- Volume
- $565.19
- Markets traded
- 76
- Open portfolio
- $31.26
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded76
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration7.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA approves MannKind's Afrezza? · Yes | 0.520 | 1.000 | $9.48 | +$4.55 |
| Will Encore Medical’s market cap be less than $45M at market close on IPO day? · No | 0.620 | 1.000 | $8.07 | +$3.07 |
| Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? · No | 0.730 | 1.000 | $6.77 | +$1.83 |
| Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? · Yes | 0.785 | 0.957 | $6.09 | +$1.09 |
| Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.442 | 0.075 | $0.85 | −$4.15 |
| Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? · No | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.26 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.80at 0.510Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?
- +$4.60at 0.521Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?
- +$4.40at 0.532Will François Piquemal be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election?
- +$4.20at 0.490Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $5.00-$6.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?
- +$3.77at 0.570Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the second most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-25 01:45 | FDA approves MannKind's Afrezza? | BUY | 0.519999962 | $4.93 |
| 04-16 08:15 | Will Trump say "Kamala" during TPUSA events on April 17? | BUY | 0.5799999841 | $4.24 |
| 04-12 08:07 | Will Madison Air’s market cap be between $12.5B and $13.0B at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.7799999813 | $4.91 |
| 04-12 03:57 | Will Encore Medical’s market cap be less than $45M at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.6099999756 | $4.84 |
| 04-12 03:50 | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 04-05 03:48 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 5? | BUY | 0.5799999954 | $4.79 |
| 04-05 03:44 | Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.6389999649 | $4.82 |
| 04-05 03:40 | Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.549999956 | $4.78 |
| 03-28 00:27 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? | BUY | 0.6499999675 | $5.00 |
| 03-28 00:18 | Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026 | BUY | 0.699999972 | $5.00 |
| 03-28 00:15 | Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | BUY | 0.75 | $5.00 |
| 03-28 00:11 | Will Trump visit China by June 30? | BUY | 0.75 | $5.00 |
| 03-28 00:07 | Will Trump visit China by May 31? | BUY | 0.7399998964 | $5.00 |
| 03-27 00:27 | Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? | BUY | 0.7853038522 | $5.00 |
| 03-27 00:23 | Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026 | BUY | 0.549999956 | $5.00 |