nucleargulf
0x9ba631b80439346dd7d3b35e0779b05fb967c46a
- Realised P&L
- $-99.22
- Volume
- $1.6k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $108.16
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration40.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75% by December 31? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.403 | $48.80 | −$2.04 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.208 | 0.175 | $34.52 | −$6.51 |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.554 | 0.590 | $22.37 | +$1.37 |
| Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31? · Yes | 0.386 | 0.040 | $2.46 | −$21.34 |
| Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$34.58 |
| GitHub.com critical incident by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.710 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$106.50 |
| Will there be 4 or more Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 28? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.80 |
| Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? · No | 0.843 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$117.76 |
| Will there be exactly 1 Codex weekly usage limit reset in the week of September 28? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$78.13at 0.242DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?
- +$52.60at 0.450Will Anthropic reset Claude usage limit by August 15?
- +$45.43at 0.395Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?
- +$16.67at 0.206Will Anthropic reset Claude usage limit by August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 14:03 | Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75% by December 31? | BUY | 0.4951986483 | $38.18 |
| 10-04 18:27 | Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75% by December 31? | BUY | 0.2877727273 | $12.66 |
| 10-01 16:06 | Will there be exactly 1 Codex weekly usage limit reset in the week of September 28? | BUY | 0.37 | $14.80 |
| 10-01 16:04 | Will there be 4 or more Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 28? | BUY | 0.38 | $15.20 |
| 10-01 15:56 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999931 | $5.60 |
| 10-01 15:47 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2283673469 | $11.19 |
| 10-01 15:08 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.22 | $7.24 |
| 10-01 15:06 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2118901224 | $6.00 |
| 10-01 15:04 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1726912359 | $11.00 |
| 10-01 15:03 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.5538633029 | $21.00 |
| 10-01 01:38 | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.58 | $150.32 |
| 09-13 09:17 | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3854884492 | $99.91 |
| 08-03 23:02 | Will Anthropic reset Claude usage limit by August 31? | BUY | 0.2 | $4.20 |
| 08-03 23:00 | Will Anthropic reset Claude usage limit by August 15? | BUY | 0.4401777126 | $42.10 |
| 07-09 23:07 | Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.38 | $34.58 |