xfgjud
0x9b9914c0e782cb63fca463c5bd85d65bad290b5f
- Realised P&L
- $-24.84
- Volume
- $6.0k
- Markets traded
- 29
- Open portfolio
- $2.22
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded29
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Clayface" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? · No | 0.950 | 1.000 | $1.10 | +$0.05 |
| Will US births in 2026 be less than 3.50 million? · No | 0.980 | 0.998 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| USD0 depeg by December 31? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.060 | $0.09 | −$1.13 |
| Will Cach Mercer win Love Island season 12? · No | 0.640 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Trump say "Thousand" or "Million" or "Billion" 15+ times during call with Service Members on November 27? · No | 0.540 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.46 |
| Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by March 31? · Yes | 0.890 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Lowe's Companies (LOW) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.26at 0.570Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?
- +$1.70at 0.540Will Sean Baker win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars for "Anora"?
- +$0.85at 0.780Will Oleksandr Usyk KO Tyson Fury?
- +$0.82at 0.710U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31?
- +$0.32at 0.934Will two SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-28 05:33 | Will US births in 2026 be less than 3.50 million? | BUY | 0.98 | $1.00 |
| 10-28 05:33 | Will "Clayface" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? | BUY | 0.95 | $1.00 |
| 10-28 05:32 | Will "Clayface" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? | SELL | 0.78 | $0.78 |
| 10-28 05:32 | Will "Clayface" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? | BUY | 0.95 | $1.00 |
| 10-28 05:30 | Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.987 | $301.17 |
| 10-28 05:29 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | SELL | 0.957 | $295.37 |
| 10-26 07:16 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.972 | $300.00 |
| 10-26 07:15 | Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.999 | $300.00 |
| 10-26 07:13 | Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9910056885 | $300.00 |
| 10-26 07:13 | Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.982 | $294.60 |
| 10-26 07:12 | Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9919999995 | $300.00 |
| 07-07 05:48 | Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.992 | $80.47 |
| 07-07 05:47 | Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $69.93 |
| 06-26 08:19 | Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.993 | $80.00 |
| 06-26 08:19 | Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.992 | $79.36 |